Demand-side factors mainly positive

PMR, a company providing market information, advice and services, has now extended the geographical scope of its DIY report to Russia and Ukraine. The inclusion of these two countries has substantially affected aggregated regional trends, so it is worth taking a look at the DIY market in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region.
The first major effect of including the two new countries is the impact on aggregate market growth, which reached 1.8 per cent in 2013, according to PMR’s new report ‘DIY retail in Central and Eastern Europe 2014 – market analysis and development forecasts for 2014-2019.’
The DIY market value in the Central and Eastern European region reached € 35.6 bn in 2013, according to PMR’s estimates. Russia and Ukraine accounted for more than two-thirds of the regional DIY market value.
In all the countries analysed the past few years have been rather difficult for the DIY market. However, ‘difficult’ meant decreasing market values in Central Europe, in contrast to slower growth in Russia and Ukraine. Market value in the CE region (read: excluding Russia and Ukraine) decreased by 1.2 per cent in 2013, according to the researchers’ estimates, so the two additional countries were clearly the drivers of CEE market growth in 2013.
What were the economic factors determining the short-term market development? According to PMR’s short-term forecast, macroeconomic factors are not expected to support market growth in the CEE region in 2014. Although a general improvement in conditions is expected in some economies, the difficulties forecast in Russia and Ukraine will have an adverse effect on the growth of the regional market.

Demand-side factors are mostly positive: the average age and general state of dwellings in the region definitely call for renovation works and, according to recent consumer confidence data from Eurostat, the inclination of households to carry out such projects will be getting stronger in the coming months. In this respect, purchasing power and availability of loans will limit market growth.
The supply side will be determined by the further expansion of DIY retail chains in most of the countries, according to the forecast. It will be most significant in countries with large…