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German DIY stores are expected to be treading water in 2024 with an estimated +0.0 per cent increase in sales. This was Klaus-Peter Teipel's forecast at today's second and final day of the German DIY Congress 2023 in Bonn, organised by the industry association BHB. The forecast of zero growth represents the mean value; in a pessimistic case, nominal turnover could also shrink by 1.5 per cent and in an optimistic case, growth of 2.5 per cent is possible.
According to Teipel, managing director of Klaus Peter Teipel Research & Consulting, real growth in the German DIY and garden centre sector will not be possible again until 2025 at the earliest. Unlike DIY stores, garden centres are expected to achieve nominal growth of 2.9 per cent in 2024 if the weather is good.
Teipel expects the German DIY market as a whole to shrink by 0.5 per cent in nominal terms in 2023, with DIY and home improvement stores likely to record a nominal decline of 4.0 per cent. The DIY product range is expected to shrink by 0.7 per cent in the overall market and by 4.3 per cent in DIY and home improvement stores in nominal terms. For the current year, a decline of 4.5 per cent is forecast for the building materials range in the market as a whole and a decline of 4.2 per cent for DIY and home improvement stores. The garden product range is expected to fare slightly better, with the overall market down 2.0 per cent and DIY stores down 2.8 per cent. Teipel sees the only plus for 2023 in the extension range: in the overall market, it is expected to grow by 2.6 per cent by the end of 2023, while it is expected to decline by 4.1 per cent in DIY and home improvement stores.
Looking back historically, the industry analyst emphasised that 2023 will be the first year since 2013 with the Praktiker/Max Bahr bankruptcy and since 2009 with the global financial and economic crisis in which a loss has been recorded. This underlines the fact that there were fundamental shifts in consumer behaviour in 2023.
