German DIY and garden market expected to shrink by 1.9 per cent

Despite higher incomes, falling inflation and lower interest rates, consumer sentiment remains negative, and the construction industry continues to make negative headlines for the most part. Against this backdrop, the German DIY and garden sector still appears reasonably stable. Nevertheless, the overall DIY market (with a sales volume of around EUR 284 bn) will continue to shrink in the current year 2024, in line with developments in 2023, with a nominal decline of 1.9 per cent. This is shown in the new study ‘DIY Scenario 2030’ by IFH Cologne and Klaus Peter Teipel Research & Consulting.

In view of slight price increases, the real losses are likely to be slightly below the three per cent mark, Teipel predicted. ‘Behind the overall market development, there is a multitude of very different developments in the market-relevant product groups and the sales channels behind them,’ explains the market expert.

It is therefore necessary to take a look at the various distribution channels: While food and non-food discounters as well as speciality stores were able to post noticeable sales growth in 2024, the lighting, tile and furniture trade in particular had recorded significant sales losses during the year. The general negative trend has affected almost all specialist retail formats in the DIY and gardening segment, with only gardening and pet specialists expecting slight to moderate sales growth, according to Teipel. By contrast, the skilled trades face a loss of sales in trades directly related to new building construction projects.

Best case: +13.5 per cent by 2030

The market experts also analysed the dynamics in the DIY sector in various forecast variants. In the real-case scenario variant, the growth rates of the overall DIY market by 2030 are between 1.1 and 1.9 per cent. According to this, nominal growth will decrease by 2030 and the sales volume in the DIY market will be around 308 billion euros – a nominal increase of 6.5 percent compared to 2023. In the best-case scenario, market sales of 328 billion euros (+13.5 percent) are expected, while in the worst-case scenario, sales of 292 billion euros (+0.9 percent) are expected.